Jiang Chao Haitong cattle debt for a long time seeking opportunity not optimistic about 2017 zibba

Jiang Chao: Haitong cattle debt for a long time seeking is not optimistic about the 2017 Sina Opportunity Fund exposure: the letter Phi lag of false propaganda, long-term performance is lower than similar products, to buy the fund by the pit how to do? Click [I want to complain], Sina help you expose them! Source: Jiang Chao macro bond research public number Author: Jiang Chao, Zhou Xia, Zhang Qingyun, Haitong Securities and other Abstract: the long cycle perspective: the zero interest rate is a long-term trend since 1980, the world’s major developed countries of the Treasury rates declining. U.S. 10 years of national debt from more than 10%, down to the current 1.6%-1.7%, Japan’s debt for the past 10 years from the end of 80s to the current -0.1% of about 5%, the world has entered a low interest rate, or even negative interest rate era. The main cause of the low interest rates in the world, including: 1) demographic dividend disappeared, resulting in economic stall, in order to boost the economy, reduce real interest rates, the central bank easing, to promote long-term downward interest rates. 2, the real economy, the rate of return fell, the funds off the real to virtual, Treasury interest rates are allocated funds to buy". 3 deflation is more difficult to break the expectations of long-term economic growth point is difficult, loose marginal role weakened, low interest rates into a self circulation". Whether from the perspective of population and real estate, from the perspective of the rate of return on capital, or from the government to increase leverage point of view, China’s interest rate will decline for a long time. Since 2014, with the economic downturn, monetary easing cycle open, China’s bond market has ushered in more than 2 years of the bull market in August 16, 10 year bonds topped 2.7% low to 2.6%, we think that a bond prosperity will continue in the long term. In the 02 year cycle perspective: Breakthrough rates low is not a dream, looking forward to 17 years the opportunity the fundamental point: the interest rate is still a long-term dip may. 2002, 2006 and in the year of 2008, the economic fundamentals and deflationary pressures are the main factors leading to the low yield of Treasury bonds. In the medium term, China’s manufacturing industry investment is subject to excess capacity, and after the disappearance of the demographic dividend, real estate investment down it is difficult to avoid, but only investment in infrastructure underpinning, therefore investment pressure, and enhance residents’ income, real estate has a crowding out effect on the consumption, is expected in the future of China’s economic growth may be less than 08 years, the interest rate may dip. Loan parity: bond interest rates should be matched with the loan income. The rate of return on the 10 – year treasury bonds should be commensurate with the rate of return on capital. The current loan interest rate of around 5.25%, corresponding to the interest rate of about 10 bonds for about 2.75% years, the national debt interest rate of about 10 in. Subsequent bond interest rates down, the need for further downward lending rates, which in turn depends on monetary easing. Financial allocation perspective: assets and liabilities affect each other. Financial assets at the end of the bond proceeds need to cover their costs. Using 2 times leverage and 2.2%-2.3% currency interest rate, to estimate the coverage of the bond yield rate of interest rates. The current financial yield remained at 3.9%, corresponding to the national interest rate of 10 years was 3.1%, the interest rate for the 10 year bond was 2.7%-2.75%, followed by the trend depends on the theory of goods相关的主题文章:

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